I've been blogging since early 2002 and am amazed that people continue to log in and check it out!
What you'll find here is my personal thoughts on family, technology, art and other things that happen to grab me.
Apple 27th Jan Predictions
So it's all going to kick off later today in San Francisco when once again Steve Jobs takes to the stage to launch a new product.
Like previous occasions the chaps at Apple have kept the product under wraps and there's been no official word on it in fact, Apple haven't event announced that there is a new product. Just a press conference.
Unlike previous occasion, however, everyone has a pretty clear view that it will be a tablet of some sort. The big problem for Apple is that their phenomenal hype machine the 100,000 blogs that have been banging on about a tablet for the last 12 months also has a down side: There's no way any real-world product can live up to the hype.
Sure, in the long-term it probably will be a major deal, but in the short term there will be a lot of people complaining about the fact that Apple didn't meet their wildest [and somewhat impossible] expectations.
I use iPhone as an example. Neat when launched, lovely multi-touch interface and beautiful to hold, but... not really a major player until [a] price drop [b] 3G version launched and [c] AppStore.
Looking at the Tablet, it strikes me that we've [a] already seen multi-touch, so anything interface-wise will probably be evolution not revolution [b] it has some major network issues given that most early adopters already have an iPhone with a data contract and so to give the Tablet what it deserves [eg. both WiFi and 3G access] requires another mobile contract and [c] while the AppStore is lovely I think Tablet users are going to demand more.
In fact I reckon that the most interesting aspect here are the Applications. It's a given that whatever Apple launches will fit well into their existing eco-system and very likely offer expanded functionality over equivalent iPhone apps. The real issue is what we get beyond maps, stocks and a web browser.
Two key points here:
1. Having developed iPhone apps [actually our Ben10 Comic comes in 23 editions and was featured as top children's app in the AppStore over Xmas/New Year] it's safe to say that the type of apps to date [and by this I generalise about 97% of them] are 'quick-win' developments. A comic, a casual game, a utility or something with leverages other people's work such as geo-mapping or augmented reality gimmick. That's a long way from a fully-featured app - it's weeks of development rather than months or years, So I expect the number of 'rich' tablet apps to be a small percentage of what's out there.
2. For sure we'll see lovingly crafted animated, video-embedded, personalised magazine type things. Great, this will give all those tossers who user Flash another way to obfuscate great content. But to be honest I couldn't give a f*ck about The New York Times. I want Country Life. Okay perhaps not but the point is that there'll be a huge gap between major publications [for example, The Guardian] and niche ones [for example, British Dressage Monthly] available on the same device which is going to cause consumer confusion.
What I mean is this: The value of content within Vogue and the Hackney Gazette is similar to me. But put the two publications side-by-side and they're very different. Now put them of the same device. See what I'm getting at?
Anyway, enough of the rant and onto the predictions bit [last time I think I did okay, let's see how this goes]:
Obvious:
It will look like a larger version of the first generation iPhone, 10" screen, one button. It will run iPhone OS [with extensions to allow for larger screen resolutions, input methods, &c] It will run normal Apps - several at once - and Tablet Apps, in fullscreen mode
Likely:
A very clever eReader with lots of content partners signed up Demos of how it brings books into the 21st century - annotations, referrals, searches, &c
Unlikely:
Stylus Front Camera for Video Chat
Personally I hope it has a wicked-fast screen-sharing app.
